Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
